Off-Topic EU in out referendum or shake it all about !

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Chat' started by vincemince, Monday 1st Jun, 2015.

  1. vincemince Top Contributor ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆

    Thread started as requested
    the referendum will throw up all the usual arguments that the media will want you to hear and see
    Prima facie for me the idea of an integrated and mutually beneficial geographical area has its appeal
    BUT this monstrously large organisation is full of in built contradictions which could have and should have been sorted at its out set
    We are now having to deal with problems which were foreseeable and such waste in both a bureaucratic and financial sense that at times to me it feels like an ongoing play out stripping the Mousetrap in its continuity

    Me thinks this will be the outcome of Cameron &' Osbournes efforts

    image.
     
  2. vincemince Top Contributor ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆

    This is a bit simplistic but should give a starting point for debate
    The question I always ask is . What does all this actually mean to the ordinary man in the street ?
    How will it impact them?

    And what of the fifth point down associated to TTIP transatlantic trade and investment partnership


    Q&A: What Britain wants from Europe - BBC News

    Mr Cameron has said he does not want to reveal full details of his negotiating hand but he has given a broad indication, in a series of speeches and newspaper articles, of his priorities when he goes into talks with other EU leaders.
    These are:
    • Allowing Britain to opt-out from the EU ambition to forge an "ever closer union" of the peoples of Europe
    • Restricting access to in-work and out-of-work benefits to EU migrants
    • Giving greater powers to national parliaments to block EU legislation
    • Supporting the continued enlargement of the EU to new members but with new mechanisms in place to "prevent vast migrations across the Continent"
    • Freeing business from red tape and "excessive interference" from Brussels and providing access to new markets through "turbo charging" free trade deals with America and Asia
    • Protection for the City of London financial markets from EU legislation
    • Creating safeguards to ensure changes in the single market cannot be imposed on non-eurozone members by the eurozone


    Hope you know what your voting for when the time comes
    :sherlock:
     
  3. Chunkylover53 Expert Advisor ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

    No brainer for me, stay in EU. The leave EU camp are going to be weak and even if they are louder its going to be similar to the Scottish Independence debacle where a large number of voters stick to status quo and don't publicize it - except in this case we'll see a larger majority for staying within EU.
     
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  4. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

    Ooops, posted on the politics thread before I saw this one...DOH!

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    ^^ Agree.

    My fear is a negative campaign on both sides, but more negative from the "Out" camp. I'd like to think that the positive benefits of staying in would be enough to give a decisive result, but I'm not sure TBH.

    What the "Yes" campaign needs is a really catchy slogan that is proven to work. Hmmm, let me think....how about "Better Together."

    :lol:
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    Last edited: Tuesday 2nd Jun, 2015
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  5. vincemince Top Contributor ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆

    ^^ Agree.

    My fear is a negative campaign on both sides, but more negative from the "Out" camp. I'd like to think that the positive benefits of staying in would be enough to give a decisive result, but I'm not sure TBH.

    What the "Yes" campaign needs is a really catchy slogan that is proven to work. Hmmm, let me think....how about "Better Together."


    @FirstHonda As you say negative campaigning is not what is needed here. The bigger picture needs to be promoted in a positive message whilst exposing the possible downfalls of a decision one way or the other. I often find campaigns like this will focus on fear rather than on a positive vision of the future.
    At times I feel individual issues set the tone for out ! Rather than trying to reform/resolve those individual issues like the CAP and Freedom of movement they can be used for political leverage in a negative manner. Hence UKIP coming to the fore

    Reform is what is needed and the UK will have no say if it comes out and then will have to renegotiate on all fronts from the sidelines

    Good old mackinder !

    :sherlock:
     
  6. vincemince Top Contributor ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆

    Interesting comments made below from Centre for European Reform , but try putting this across to people who live in an area where there has been EU immigration on a scale which has a noticeable effect on the local population ; an issue leveraged by UKIP

    Beware how political parties will leverage this referendum for other self-serving political gains at the expense of the UK as a whole.

    :sherlock:

    http://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default...nts/pdf/2014/pb_britishtrade_16jan14-8285.pdf

    ' As the eurozone economy continues to stagnate, the proportion of British trade accounted for by the rest of the EU is falling, and non-European markets are becoming more important for British exporters. But this is not a reason for the UK to leave the EU.
    Membership of the EU significantly increases Britain’s trade with other member-states, while there is little evidence that it reduces trade with countries outside the Union. Britain is home to a larger stock of EU and US foreign direct investment (FDI) than any other EU economy and is the preferred location for investment from other leading markets. Some of this investment would be threatened by a UK exit from the EU.
    If Britain were to leave the EU, it would face a difficult dilemma: having to negotiate access to the EU’s single market in exchange for continued adherence to its rules – or losing access in return for regulatory sovereignty that would be largely illusory. '



    :sherlock: Note the use of the word illusory !

    ' The alternatives
    if Britain withdrew from full membership of the EU, there would be a number of potential options for managing its trading relationships: membership of the European Economic Area (the norway option);
    a customs union, similar to the one the EU has with Turkey; a basket of bilateral agreements such as that
    which exists between Switzerland and the EU; a so- called ‘vanilla’ free trade agreement such as the ones the EU has with countries ranging from South Korea to South Africa; and finally trade with the EU under World Trade organisation (WTo) rules. none of these options would be straightforward. '



    ' conclusion
    The UK has very little to gain by quitting the EU and much to lose. Britain’s interest lies in reducing the cost of trade with its largest trade partners – which the EU evidently does. The cEr’s model suggests that the country’s membership of the EU’s single market has boosted its trade in goods with the rest of the Union, and there is little evidence that trade overall has been diverted away from other major trading partners. While the single market for services has not been a great success – Britain’s trade in services with the US has grown as quickly as with the EU over the last decade – leaving the EU would not reduce barriers to services trade. it may increase them, unless the EU granted Britain the same level of access to its services markets that is currently available.
    While it is impossible to know exactly what terms a departing Britain could negotiate, it seems unlikely that all those trade gains would disappear: Britain and the EU would probably negotiate an fTA, although it is
    impossible to know how comprehensive it would be. But life would be uncomfortable on the outside: the
    UK would be powerless to push for liberalisation of EU services markets; it would find that in some sectors, inward investors would switch their money to countries inside the EU; and it would find it very difficult to negotiate trade agreements with non-EU countries as comprehensive as those that the EU regularly agrees.
    The idea that the UK would be freer outside the EU is based on a series of misconceptions: that a medium- sized, open economy could hold sway in an increasingly fractured trading system, dominated by the US, the EU and china; that the EU makes it harder for Britain to penetrate emerging markets; and that foreign capital would be more attracted to Britain’s economy if it were no longer a part of the single market. The UK should base policy on evidence, which largely points to one conclusion: that it should stay in the EU. '

    :sherlock:
    Why are things so complicated ?
     
  7. vincemince Top Contributor ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆

    Ah the EU ref. bill starts today , part two Thursday 18th . :dodgydeal: :nosey: :dodgydeal:
    Let's see what comes about , should be interesting .
    Are we in danger of different parties taking the same stance on in or out with rebels within taking an opposing view .
    The messages may become muddled , not by the issues , but by politicisation of them for short term personal political gain . Lets wait and see.

    :sherlock: Did'nt Michelle Obama speke well on education today
     
  8. vincemince Top Contributor ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆

    John McDonnell brings TTIP and ISDS to the EU ref debate and wants a report on them before ref takes place because of their possible impact .

    Oops it's started - the scots want a double yes/no and do not want to accept a decision which opposes that of the Scottish people
    I.e to be dragged out or kept in against their wishes. That's my interpretation anyway
    Question : Is this not a referendum of UK membership ? And as such should be a UK vote as a whole.

    :sherlock: Erm ! Lot more to come me thinks .
     
  9. Ichiban Founder Staff Team

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    I know what I will be voting for just need the anti Europe brigade to find it voice they seem to have gone quite. No fun when it all hush hush at the moment.
     
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  10. Ichiban Founder Staff Team

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    Thread bump his has gone as cold as comrade Corbyns decision to scrap the nuclear deterrent.
     
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  11. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

    Don't the two campaigns start this week?

    Will be tricky for the 'stay in' side unless Cameron gets some concessions sorted soon.

    I do worry that we'll end up drifting out almost by accident...
     
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  12. Zebster Expert Advisor ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

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    The 'leave' camp are far noiser and better represented... almost certainly because there is a dedicated party (UKIP) campaigning on this single issue. I believe that recent polls continue to show the majority of us wishing to remain, albeit by a very small margin.

    What's needed is an equally vocal group campaigning to remain, although it can be difficult to whip up enthusiasm on behalf of maintaining the status quo!
     
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  13. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

    ^^I think the other problem with the 'stay in' campaign will be that the two main parties are divided on the issue to a greater (Conservative) or lesser (Labour) extent. The only truly pro-Europe 'major' party is the Liberal-Democrats, and TBH they could hold their next conference in a telephone box...:Laughing:

    At least UKIP seem to have some issues as well.

    :Smile:

    Ukip conference: Farage and Carswell in battle over rival anti-EU campaigns | Politics | The Guardian

    As long as the 'stay in' campaign stay calm and logical, and don't resort to scaremongering, we should be ok. We should be...:Ermm:

    ...unless the EU digs in over ANY reforms, and the negotiations get nowhere. In which case, 'Brexit' here we come!
     
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  14. Zebster Expert Advisor ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

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    I'm not a fan of the referendum.. it throws up potential contradictions. Using the obvious example, we have an elected government that achieved a reasonably large winning margin, and is 'officially' pro-EU. If a referendum results in the UK leaving the EU then surely this will undermine a lot of the government manifesto? It isn't joined up at all!
     
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  15. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

    I suppose the Conservatives would argue that they promised the referendum in their manifesto.

    We should have a referendum to decide whether to have a referendum...:Laughing:

    For me, the big problem is that Cameron has promised 'changes' to the way the EU operates. If he doesn't get anything substantial (and why should he?) then this referendum could be an accident waiting to happen.
     
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  16. Zebster Expert Advisor ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

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    Fair point about the manifesto, perhaps I should have used the word 'policies' instead?

    Cameron could (and should) instigate changes, so long as these are seen to be fair and not simply the UK trying to gain unfair benefits. The EU, like all large organisations, really should be continuously evolving and improving... the apparently 'one-size-fits-all' arrangements for all member states is obviously unfair and should be addressed to reflect the vastly differing economies across the membership. And the way in which the Syrian (and other) refugees are being managed is appalling - there clearly is no policy in place regarding how we decide to admit these people and (worse!) no obvious arrangements about how these incomers should then be fairly distributed, once admitted by a member state.
     
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  17. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

    ^^Yes, totally agree.
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    ^^And seemingly no single European foreign policy on how to deal with the conflict in Syria, or the mess in Libya, or Iraq...I could go on.
     
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  18. vincemince Top Contributor ★ ★ ★ ★ ☆

    I some how feel politics is going to get very messy over the next 12 months .
    Issues , left , right and centre on many fronts with Osborne more focused on scheming to become leader as his primary goal .
    Corbyn having his new so called style of politics , which for me at present is lacking in cohesion and strategy, tried tested and found lacking unless he adopts an approach of persuasion and accommodation . Compromise is essential
    As for brexit , at this rate I think I will move to Mars just to get away from all the confusion and get a better perspective.
    Still think we should stay in but definitely would like reform .
     
  19. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

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  20. Zebster Expert Advisor ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

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    I love The Mash...
     
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