Off-Topic General Election prediction thread

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Chat' started by FirstHonda, Friday 21st Nov, 2014.

  1. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

    With the General Election now only six months away, I thought it might be fun to try to predict what will happen in May 2015.

    The political landscape in the UK is more complex now than it has been for a generation. Labour have a narrow lead in the latest polls, but doubts remain about Ed Miliband's leadership - although I'll predict now that he will still be Labour leader at the election. Their policy programme often seems opportunistic and fragmented, drifting to the left on issues such as a "mansion tax" and capping of energy prices, whilst appearing to appease supporters likely to move to UKIP with announcements on immigration control, and benefits.

    The Conservatives are still, after all these years, having major issues with the European question but now with the added complication of a confident UKIP. Even though polls suggest that they are the most trusted with the economy, the lack of a boundary commission review during the life time of this Parliament is the one thing most likely to cost them an overall majority. With Boris waiting stage left (well, stage right!) a Cameron election loss could lead to a very entertaining period on the political horizon.

    Liberal Democrats are predicted to suffer heavy losses, both because a significant proportion of their supporters are more Social Democrat than Liberal and thus resent a coalition with the Conservatives, but also because of their broken promise on university tuition fees. May could be a tricky time for the party, although I'll wager they won't do as badly as some pundits predict. Nick Clegg may even hang on as leader (although I'd say more likely to go into the House of Lords), and who could have predicted that 18 months ago?

    We've now also got the exciting addition of the strongest Scottish National Party in my life time. They may yet hold the balance of power, and be able to make demands in order to secure a Labour led coalition for Ed Miliband, although that would lead to potentially tricky times on the question of an "English" Parliament to vote on "English only" issues. Could we see another referendum on Scottish independence in the next Parliament even? I wouldn't rule it out.

    As for the other parties - UKIP, Green, Plaid Cymru, etc. who knows? It's a fascinating time in British politics. Personally I think UKIP won't be as successful as it now seems they might be, but I can see a second Green MP. And what of George Galloway in Bradford? And Northern Ireland? In another hung Parliament situation, the "other" parties and independents could end up as unexpected kingmakers in a mixed coalition.

    I'm pretty sure I'll look back and laugh at how wrong I've got it...:Smile: but I'll predict a narrow overall majority for the Conservatives of between 1 and 10 seats, as they retain current marginals in the South, and East & West Midlands, and take a few seats in England from the Lib Dems.

    I think UKIP will retain one seat, but win no others. The Lib Dems will drop from 56 to between 20-25, with the majority of those lost in England moving unexpectedly to Conservative rather than to Labour, as well as to the Scottish Nationalists in Scotland. The Scottish Nationalists may yet be the big winners, rising from their current 6 seats to 20-25. That feels like a bold prediction (and it is) but I see Scotland as holding the key to Number 10 this time, and rather than seeing Miliband as PM with their support in a Lab/SNP coalition, I see their potential success securing a Conservative victory (which would be somewhat ironic...)

    Feel free to play along, I'm pretty sure there will be more twists and turns before we get to May...




     
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  2. SpeedyGee Administrator Staff Team

    England Speedy Birmingham
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    I predict it's going to be raining on the day :Tongue:
     
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  3. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

    :lol:

    ...in which case, even more likely to be a Conservative victory.
     
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  4. ArcticFire-Account Closed Banned Getting Started

    Scotland Graham Scotland
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    Politics....

    People seem to have short memories and short sighted, Labour did so much irreversible damage and left the Tories with a terrible state of affairs to deal with. Then people are unhappy that the Tories took big steps to try and fix things? Austerity was necessary. There's a lot about the Tories I don't like but God help us if Labour get back into power, especially with that rat Miliband as the leader.

    Lib Dem = Joke.
    SNP = Not sure. Lots of 'too good to be true' promises and there's always that Nationalism threat.
    UKIP = A good protest group but some serious undercurrents to risk putting them in power.

    The best thing that could ever happen for the country is a form of Direct Democracy and empower the public when it comes to the most serious issues, rather than having to wait until the next election when the damage is already done and can't be reversed.
     
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  5. FirstHonda Premium Member Club Supporter

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  6. Ichiban Founder Staff Team

    England CJ Leeds
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    I can see another collation but Labour and Conservatives are not going into power together . Lib dems are truly stuffed and UKIP will take their third spot or even a creditable opposition in the house.

    I envisage hung Parliament..
     
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  7. Nighthawk Guest

    United Kingdom Richard Milton Keynes
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    Im steering well away from this one - :Whistle:
     
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  8. DeviateDefiant Co-Founder Staff Team

    United Kingdom Leo Northants
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    Politics is a pantomime, the media put on the show, the party selected to go into power, go into power. Corporate interests still fund the campaign, corporate interests are still served, the figurehead elected Prime Minister plays out his role for the powers that be. The people are not meant to have control, and it's been that way going back to Sumerian times. This isn't a tin-foil hat scenario, you don't find a Prime Minister or President which isn't directly blood related to the British royal family and the family itself can be traced back to Roman times, and further to Greek, Roman and the Sumerian, believe what you want but that part is irrefutable.

    They'll still play the white British against the Muslims and keep us squabbling amongst ourselves, they'll still take anyway our freedoms and privacy in the name of terrorist prevention measures; they'll continue privatising the public sector and handing it to corporate interests; the media will keep promoting the idolisation of celebrities, aesthetic appearance and more superficial cow poop; people will still spend their days discussing sport/television/media like it's our number one priority in life; the food industry will keep adding in more genetically unstable shite into the food chain, and purport the safety of dangerous common food additives; our kids will still be under educated, they'll be further introduced to more "policing" and "survelliance" in the schools preparing them to accept it as the norm when they are adults; and of course we'll all accept it willingly and if not, we'll politely moan to one another until they finally cross a line enough for the people to revolt - but TPTB aren't stupid enough to trigger that right?

    Jesus, I ranted a bit - the difference between democracy and a dictatorship, is that one believes they have a say, the other knows they don't.
     
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  9. Ichiban Founder Staff Team

    England CJ Leeds
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    Sounding like a Born pessimistic dude
     
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  10. DeviateDefiant Co-Founder Staff Team

    United Kingdom Leo Northants
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    I'm one of the most optimistic people you'll ever meet, but there's simply too much ignorance from the general population for any kind of meaningful reform to happen. I can't overturn the system, but I can live within it and prosper by understanding the scenario which is unfolding around me.

    The healthiest way to survive in modern society is to stay informed, and utilise critical thinking. I don't agree with violence, war, or even rioting against the government - so I'll sit here an objective pacifist and get on with my life like everyone else.

    Of course, I will moan whenever I feel motivated to :Smile:
     
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  11. Duc de Pommfrit Moderator Staff Team

    United Kingdom Chester Northumberland
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    Sorry but I avoid this topic! :Tea:
     
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  12. Ichiban Founder Staff Team

    England CJ Leeds
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    I take you don't vote come important elections?
     
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  13. DeviateDefiant Co-Founder Staff Team

    United Kingdom Leo Northants
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    No, as I don't see there being any important elections :Whistle: I should make the effort to register a null vote but I haven't done in the past.
     
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  14. Ichiban Founder Staff Team

    England CJ Leeds
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    As I expected so you rather sit on the fence and mouth it off without engaging in the process.